Today I made an Obama Supporter Cry

I am ashamed to say that today I made an Obama supporter cry. I'm not proud of it. But, I confess: I was getting a little irritated with her and I guess deep down I must have awakened my bad mean self. Let me tell you why.

We're sitting around a round table in the student lunch break. She came in wearing an Obama shirt, and I found that detail amusing because just last week she claimed that she was a Republican. Today, she had changed her mind. So I laughed and she wanted to know if it had anything to do with her shirt. From then on, she tried to defend her decision, with which I was fine. Until she decided to attack John McCain's proposed tax policy and purported that Obama is right to spread the wealth around, after all don't we all want to help people? Well, I'm okay with helping people, and I always do, but I'd rather do it my way than have someone tell me how to do it marginally more than I am required to already. So I try to logically demonstrate why any upward change of the marginal tax rate is a bad idea, but she won't budge. So I asked her if she would be upset if her tax withholdings increased and tax deductions decreased? Imagine my surprise when she told me that she doesn't work, nor has she ever! What the hell? I guess she is okay to have her parents' and our tax money get redistributed at a proportionally higher rate than before?

Did she stop there? Nope. She had the gal to complain about McCain's proposed health care credit and de-regulation of the health insurance industry. I guess we don't care for sick people who cannot afford their medication. Somehow Obama is going to force pharmaceutical companies to absorb the majority of the research costs and retail. Right! We conservatives are such heartless people.

When she complained that McCain is too old and if elected he might just pass away I had had enough. So I remarked that the voting age needs to be increased to 21 to avoid having a percentage of the eligible voters who are so gullible and idealistic they would vote 50Cent in office. Yeah, she took offense to this, got visibly upset and started crying. Everyone around me started complaining that my comments were out of line, considering many 18-21 year olds serve in the armed forces and thus have earned the right to vote. I concede the point, so I'll compromise here to propose that the minimum voting age be changed to 21, except for those who are serving in the armed forces. How can we have a prosperous society when we have these college aged kids who have been told that they are unique and entitled to an opinion. I was 18-21 and I admit I was idealistic, stupid, and irresponsible. Ugh!

Polls Are the Root of All Evil (Sort Of...)

I was just reading an optimistic post claiming that McCain will win by landslide. I share the poster's optimism, but I think McCain has a low probability of winning by a landslide but has a moderate probability of winning. Republicans and conservatives in general are getting more hopeful the closer we are to November 4^th, especially given how John McCain is closing the gap in the multitude of polls to within the margin of error. That means that Jonh McCain may win or lose by 3-4 percentage points in most cases. During past elections a trend has been established as the poster on EarthFrisk.com points out:

• 2004 - Bush wins over Kerry 50.7 to 48.3 percent. Bush was behind by 6 points, but won by 2 (margin of error to within 4 points)
  
• 2000 - Bush wins over Gore 48 to 48 percent. Well, this was really a tie, but Bush was behind in the polls by 3 points
• 1996 - Clinton wins over Dole 49 to 40. A few days before election Bush was behind in the polls by 9 points. Yet again, Ross Perot absorbed a lot of the Republican votes which would've otherwise gone to Dole
  
• 1992 - Clinton wins over Bush (senior) 43.01 to 37.45 percent. In the polls Bush was behind by 12 points. Ross Perot absorbs a lot of the Republican votes which would've otherwise gone to Bush
• 1988 - Bush (senior) wins over Dukakis 53.4 to 45.6 percent. In the polls, Bush was behind by 16 points.

Although a trend can be discerned, one can hardly make a sound decision on the current election cycle. I do not agree either one of the candidates will be able to win by a landslide - not in this very divided electorate. A major factor in this year's election is the young vote and the black vote, both of which are important because of their magnitude of impact on both campaigns. If we are to believe the various polls, impromptu or otherwise, around 90 percent of the black vote will go to Obama. But the impact of this segment of the population which has been lobbied to very heavily, and won by, the Obama campaign comprises only 12.8 percent of the population, or 38 million African-Americans in the US. But the number of eligible black voters is further reduced by eligibility requirements such as age, registration status, and citizenship among other factors.

Another large factor is the young voters as a deciding factor in this election. According to america.gov 14 percent of young voters (18 to 29 years old and make up 44 million eligible voters) will turn out to vote in the US, of which around 62 percent of those 44 million young voters favor Obama according to the Gallup poll. In addition, the New York Times reports (or purports - j.jk.) that 2.3 percent of the voter-eligible population will be excluded from voting either through disenfranchisement or other restrictions such as being a felon or not.

It is important to note however that certain exclusions have to be made from the poll numbers we have become so used to seeing. Given the two groups I cited above, African-Americans and young voters, it is worthwhile to note that some voters who fall into the young voter category may be African-American, may be disenfranchised, and may be felons. These exclusions make up the residuals and must be counted as errors in polling. In other words, when it comes to the polls the margin of error may or may not cover the exclusionary criteria.

The effect that the polls, pollsters, and the media in general have on voter decision making is important on its own. Consider the effect a pollster's questions may have depending on the series of questions asked, whether they are neutral or not, leading or not, and so forth. During a polling session the truthefulness of the answers of the polled voters may also be questionable. Another factor that may affect polling of likely voters may be the effect the media exerts over voter opinions. The treatment (rather non-treatement) afforded to the Republican candidates by the leftist media (ahem, ABC, MS/NBC, CBS, ans CNN) may change voter minds, be they negative or positive towards McCain/Palin.

The problem with all the statistics and polling we hear is that they cannot account well for the many variables that would exclude potential voters from the poll. So in effect how pollsters decide to sample the varying populations is important. The question that seems to have been raised reluctantly by the various media outlets has been how much if any do these presumably independent polls affect sampling and responses of those polled? Also, what is the effect to the questions asked? Furthermore, is it possible that the media, by utilizing ever complicated daily, weekly, and monthly polls, is shaping voter decisions? I wish these damned pollsters would shut up and just go away.